What will global coffee consumption look like in 2023/24 when 2022/23 consumption drops sharply?
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The International Coffee Organization – ICO has just released the Coffee Outlook and Report. The analysis provides an overview of the world coffee industry including consumption, production this year and future forecasts. Statistics highlight a sharp decline in consumption and stagnant growth in 2022/23. So what will the global coffee consumption situation be like in 2023/24? Find out with 43 Factory Coffee Roaster!
World coffee consumption in 2022/23 recorded a sharp decrease
Previously, the industry was progressing positively according to the pre-established model in the plan to adapt to general changes in the world. Therefore, experts expect global coffee consumption in 2022/23 to grow slightly. However, in reality, the ICO report recorded a decrease in consumption of up to 1.9% to 173.2 million bags.
The reason for this decline may be due to the impact of rising living costs, reduced disposable income, and prolonged inventory decline. Specifically, the world inflation rate in 2021 is already at 9.4%. Next, the average benchmark interest rate reached 4.9% at the end of September 2023 in the European Union, UK, and US – the highest level since an average of 5.8% in 2000. Total inventories are reports from the European Coffee Federation and inventories at the warehouses of the Intercontinental Exchange in the US continuously decreased from 14.5 million to 9.8 million. These fluctuations have reduced purchasing demand in the international market and led to an unusual decline in coffee in 2022/23.
It is expected that global coffee production output in 2023/24 will increase
With environmental challenges and international market fluctuations, world coffee production in 2022/23 will grow stagnant at 0.1%, reaching 168.2 million bags. But next year, the ICO said, the impacts of the July 2021 frost will be resolved. Furthermore, the biennial production effect (after two years of average output followed by a year of good growth) will not occur. Therefore, it is expected that total new global production (Arabica and Robusta) for 2023/24 will increase by 5.8% or 178 million bags (60 kg). Of which, the output of Arabica coffee increased to 102.2 million bags and Robusta coffee increased to 75.8 million bags.
Global coffee consumption outlook 2023/24
Global coffee consumption in 2023/24 is expected to fluctuate with a quite positive increase. This positive change is established on the assumption that the global economy will maintain growth above 3.0%, and the coffee industry must have a reasonable response to the sharp decline in inventory. At that time, consumption could increase by 2.2% to 177.0 million bags with a strong contribution from non-producing countries. Among them, coffee consumption in North America is expected to increase the fastest with 3.8% to 30.9 million bags. European coffee consumption will recover, but at the lowest level (shared with South America) of 1.1% at 53.7 million bags. The Caribbean, Central America and Mexico will see coffee consumption increase by 2.3% to 6.1 million bags. Consumption in South America is expected to increase by 1.1% to 27.8 million bags. Coffee consumption in Africa and Asia & Oceania is forecast to increase by 2.7% to 12.6 million bags and 45.7 million bags, respectively.
According to forecast results from ICO, 2024 looks like a promising year for the industry with coffee consumption across regions continuously growing. However, experts also note that this growth is closely linked to the economic situation and the industry’s policies and actions in adapting to market fluctuations. If you are interested in this topic, please follow 43 Factory Coffee Roaster’s news channel.
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