This week’s coffee prices showed a clear divergence between Arabica and Robusta, with Arabica prices recovering thanks to forecasts of a sharp decline in Brazil’s production, while Robusta faced downward pressure due to increased supply from Vietnam. How will this impact the market in the coming week? Is this trend expected to continue, or is it just a temporary fluctuation?

Coffee Price Trends from 23/12 – 28/12 Domestically

From December 23rd to 28th, coffee prices in Vietnam’s Central Highlands experienced notable fluctuations. Despite a slight drop mid-week (24/12 – 25/12), prices rebounded towards the end of the week, only to sharply decline again on the final morning.

The main reason for this volatility could be related to domestic supply-demand conditions, especially weather-related factors that have impacted coffee production in the Central Highlands provinces. Additionally, the increased consumption demand during the year-end holiday season may have contributed to price hikes. Furthermore, exporters may have been stockpiling coffee in preparation for early-year contracts, which could have helped stabilize and adjust prices during the week.

Coffee Prices (VND/kg)

Coffee Price Trends from 23/12 – 28/12 Internationally

The international coffee market saw significant fluctuations this week for both Robusta and Arabica coffee prices.

Robusta Coffee Prices in London

For Robusta coffee, prices on the London market showed strong fluctuations, starting with a sharp decline on December 23rd, followed by a recovery in the subsequent days. The initial drop may have been related to a post-Christmas holiday adjustment, as investors rebalanced their portfolios. However, the rebound towards the end of the week was likely driven by higher export demand from major consumer markets, especially in Europe and Asia, as roasters prepared for the post-holiday consumption surge.

Robusta Coffee Prices:

Arabica Coffee Prices in New York

For Arabica, although prices rose sharply early in the week (23/12 – 25/12), they declined slightly towards the end (27/12 – 28/12). This reflects a balance between supply and demand, with support from information regarding Brazil’s coffee production, one of the largest producers of Arabica. However, supply disruptions from major production areas, especially regarding disease and weather conditions in Brazil and Colombia, may have created instability, diminishing investor confidence in the short term, leading to price adjustments.

Arabica Coffee Prices:

Overall Evaluation and Price Forecast for the Coming Week (Early 2025)

This week, domestic coffee prices and international Robusta and Arabica prices showed clear divergences, reflecting the multifaceted factors of supply and demand and market information. In Vietnam, domestic coffee prices dropped, decreasing by 500 to 1,000 VND/kg, particularly in the Central Highlands provinces. The main reason for this price drop was the increased domestic supply as the harvest peak arrived after delays due to heavy rainfall. Although Vietnam’s coffee exports in December continued to decline significantly in volume and value, the country still maintained a record-high export level for the year, reaching 1.26 million tons with revenue of 5.2 billion USD. However, domestic prices were still impacted by lower consumption, especially as many major consumer countries entered their holiday season and the market slowed down.

On the international market, Robusta prices for January 2025 contracts dropped by 98 USD/ton, primarily due to increased supply from Vietnam amid a broadening harvest season. However, Robusta’s price decline also stemmed from the relatively sluggish consumer market and the absence of major events in the short term. Meanwhile, the March 2025 Arabica contract increased by 5.5 cents/lb thanks to forecasts of a reduced Brazil coffee harvest in 2025/26, especially Arabica, with an estimated 15% decrease. This has raised investor expectations for higher Arabica prices as production decreases in major producing countries like Brazil and Colombia, although the weather situation in production areas in Central America and Asia remains unfavorable.

Experts forecast that Robusta prices may continue to slightly decrease in the coming week due to abundant supply from Vietnam and other Robusta-producing countries, with no strong signs of a consumption rebound. However, if export conditions do not improve and weather factors in the Central Highlands affect the harvest, Robusta prices may increase slightly in the short term. For Arabica, prices may continue to rise amid concerns over Brazil’s production and weather conditions in key production countries. Investors and producers need to pay attention to any reports on Brazil’s harvest as well as export conditions from Arabica-producing countries.

Many analysts also recommend that coffee investors closely monitor information on Brazil’s coffee production and harvest conditions in key Arabica-producing countries. In the short term, if Robusta supply from Vietnam and other Robusta-producing countries continues to grow strongly, Robusta prices could face downward pressure. On the other hand, if positive news emerges regarding consumption and exports in the coming weeks, prices could remain stable or recover. As for Arabica, producers and investors can take advantage of these price fluctuations to adjust their sales or purchasing strategies, with long-term expectations of supply shortages.

43 Factory Coffee Roaster has provided this comprehensive coffee price summary for the week. For more information on coffee machines and other useful news, visit our news page!