Risks of Arabica coffee because of global warming

– PROTECT THE ORIGIN –

Coffee will be significantly affected by the current climate change situation even though emissions reduction commitments have been met, according to the statements. According to the latest study, coffee production tends to decline rapidly in countries that account for 75% of the world’s Arabica coffee supply.

Arabica Coffee is a plant that grows in the tropics at high altitudes and is very sensitive to changes in climate.

Research shows that the difference between the threshold of global warming and the threshold of coffee production is decreasing sharply. If there is a regulatory mechanism to balance and keep global warming below 2℃ this century, international Arabica producers and suppliers will have more time to adapt. In the worst-case scenario, Arabica coffee yields could drop sharply, supply would be disrupted, and coffee prices would skyrocket unpredictably.

Source of Arabica coffee

Most Arabica coffee is grown in the tropics, throughout Latin America, Central and East Africa, and parts of Asia. Brazil, Colombia, and Ethiopia are the world’s top three Arabica coffee producers, and the crop is also of crucial socio-economic importance elsewhere.

The livelihoods of millions of farmers, mainly in the developing world, depend on the productivity of Arabica coffee. If coffee yields fall, the economic consequences for farmers are dire.

Arabica coffee typically produces the highest yields in cool, high-altitude tropical regions with annual local temperatures around 18-23℃. Higher temperatures and hotter, drier climates always lead to a drop in yield.

For example, last year, one of the worst droughts in Brazil’s history caused coffee production to drop by about a third, leading to a spike in global coffee prices.

Factors affecting the yield of Arabica coffee

Besides temperature and rainfall, the degree of dryness of the air is also a significant factor affecting coffee yield. The degree of dry heat is an effective indicator to evaluate through the “Steam Pressure Deficit method.”

The lack of vapor pressure tells us how much water is being sucked out of the plant. The researchers built scientific models based on climate data linked to decades of coffee yield data in the essential Arabica-producing countries. It can be seen that once the vapor pressure deficit reaches a critical point, the yield of Arabica coffee plummets.

This critical point is about 0.82 kilopascal (a unit of pressure calculated from temperature and humidity). After this point, Arabica coffee yields began to decline rapidly – ​​a loss of about 400 kg/ha, 50% lower than the long-term global average.

The vapor pressure deficit threshold has been exceeded in Kenya, Mexico, and Tanzania.

Unabated global warming will put the world’s coffee-producing powers at risk. Suppose global warming increases from 2℃ to 3℃. In that case, Peru, Honduras, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nicaragua, Colombia, and Brazil – which together account for 81% of global supply – are more likely to break through the pressure deficit threshold a little bit.

Ensure the yield of Arabica coffee

While there are many ways farmers and the coffee industry can adapt, the feasibility of adopting these on a global scale is highly uncertain.

For example, watering coffee trees could be an option, but this is costly, while many coffee farmers in the developing world still live on limited subsistence. Furthermore, this option may not always work as a high vapor pressure deficiency can still cause damage, even in high water conditions.

Another option might be to switch to other coffee species. But again, more is needed. As can be seen, coffee with coffee (Coffea canephora) – the other major producer of coffee – is also sensitive to an increase in temperature. Other species, such as Coffea stenophylla and Coffea liberica can be tested, but the possibility of large-scale production under climate change is yet to be confirmed.

According to the Paris Agreement, limiting global warming is the best option today to ensure the production of Arabica coffee for the worldwide supply. More importantly, keeping global warming below 2℃/century is the best way to provide millions of vulnerable farmers have a stable livelihood now and into the future.

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